How it works

PolyPesa is a prediction market. Every market is a question about the future — “Will the CBK cut rates before June?” — and the price of each answer shows how likely the crowd thinks it is.

Prices are probabilities

Shares trade between 1¢ and 99¢. If “Yes” costs 30¢, the market thinks there’s about a 30% chance it happens. Every winning share pays out KES 1.00; losing shares pay nothing.

So if you put KES 300 on Yes at 30¢, you get 1,000 shares. If the answer is Yes, you receive KES 1,000 — a profit of KES 700.

Prices move with trading

When people buy Yes, its price goes up and No goes down. Your price is locked in the moment you trade, so later moves don’t change your payout.

Markets with many outcomes

Some questions have several possible answers (“Who will win?”) or number ranges (“What will inflation be?”). You can buy Yes on the answer you think will happen, or No on one you think won’t.

Getting paid

When the result is confirmed, winnings are added to your balance automatically. Withdraw to M-Pesa any time (minimum KES 100). If a market is cancelled, every stake is refunded in full.